Some foresight about the future of foresight
Mindhive's CEO, Bruce Muirhead was interviewed by Antony Funnell on ABC Radio National's 'Future Tense' on 27 June, 2021, speaking to Mindhive, crowdsourcing and forecasting.
Listen here: Future Tense with Antony Funnell
Trying to predict the future is a timeless and time-consuming pursuit.
Artificial Intelligence is increasingly being enlisted to the cause, but so too are “super-forecasters” – a new coterie of individuals with remarkable predictive powers.
But what are their limits and what does their rise say about the still popular notion of collective intelligence – the wisdom of the crowd?
Future Tense looks at the changing role of humans in forecasting.
Guests
Associate Professor Oguz A. Acar – City University of London
Dr Steven Rieber – Program Manager, IARPA, Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (US)
Professor Michael Horowitz – Director, Perry World House, University of Pennsylvania
Bruce Muirhead – CEO, Mindhive
Camilla Grindheim Larsen – researcher and consultant, Bergen Public Library (Norway)
Duration: 29min 6secBroadcast: Sun 27 Jun 2021, 12:30pm
Importance of crowdsourcing for forecasting:
At the crux of crowdsourcing, is the diversity of thought. The question of “are we missing something?” will always be asked by those who construct models to predict the future. The best way to ensure drinking water is absent of toxins is to add more physical or chemical filters. Bringing more people into the activity of prediction or problem solving is like adding more filters, and is the best way to catch everything we need.
That’s why, at Mindhive, we are enabling the practice of mass collaboration in prediction and problem-solving.
Forecasting relies either on the understanding and analysis of causal relationships or access to big data with which to conduct predictive analytics.
When it comes to causation analysis:
The idea is that in any problem about the effect of one thing on another, particularly the effect of something on the calculous of a human, the practice of breaking the affected demographic down into sub-demographics is important because they often all have different characteristics and reactions. Empathising with each sub demographic is really hard. The best way to do it is to hear from as many as you can. This means crowdsourcing their perspective.
When it comes to predictive analytics:
Let’s be clear on what we mean by crowdsourcing in this context because, by one definition, gathering any sort of data from a lot of people is crowdsourcing. Right now, let’s talk about crowdsourcing as the crowdsourcing of insights- the more complex or qualitative conclusions that people derive from their personal or professional experiences.
This too can be analysed nowadays by predictive analytics. Innovations in natural language processing and new frameworks for the communication of ideas in a way that computers interpret with greater ease have made it possible to convert qualitative and nuanced ideas into a medium by which predictive analytics may be applied to answer questions about the future of our attitudes towards things, or even the way we think.
What Mindhive are doing with forecasting:
Will human immortality be possible in the future?
Can Australia meet the demands set in the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals?
What is the future of consulting?
Future of Brisbane?
What do you predict will be the fashion trends you'll be wearing in 2022?